For Want of a Nail (Part One)

CCXXXVI

The Hayward Review covered the first Worldflight attempt as front page news. Note that the map ends at Howland Island

In the eighty years since Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan vanished, hundreds of theories have been put forth regarding their disappearance. The most extreme of these theories involve alien abduction and Bermuda Triangle-like phenomena. Less extreme, but still radical are ideas concerning a planned disappearance* --- according to Major Joseph Gervais and Joe Klaas, who wrote a sensationalized “true” account of the incident, Earhart flew off to take up the identity of one Irene Bolam, a New Jersey housewife. Bolam sued the publisher for $1.5 million, settled out-of-court, and the book, Amelia Earhart Lives was pulled from the shelves. Why the world-famous Earhart would choose to become a New Jersey housewife --- indeed, why she would choose to live so close to New York, where she resided and would be instantly recognizable --- was explained murkily, as was Fred Noonan’s fate.

Irene Bolam, who denied being Amelia Earhart. She had, however, been an early aviatrix and claimed to have met Earhart several times

Leaving aside such oddities, the question still remains: What happened to Amelia Earhart? As soon as she was declared overdue, the United States immediately mounted the largest sea-based search-and-rescue operation in history to find Earhart and Noonan. It began with the Itasca. It ended seventeen days later, having involved seven U.S. vessels, including the aircraft carrier Lexington, with its 62 planes and the battleship Colorado. It covered nearly 265,000 square miles of the Pacific Ocean. It found nothing.

The radio room of the USCGC Itasca

By 20:00 GMT Commander Walter K. Thompson of the Itasca was preparing for an emergency even though Earhart had not declared one (she never announced a “Mayday” that anyone ever heard). Thompson had ordered his Howland shore party back aboard and had ordered steam up in the ship’s engines. At 21:38 GMT (9:08 A.M. Howland Island time), about an hour-and-a-quarter after Earhart’s last received message, he broadcast an announcement to both Hawaii and American Samoa that Earhart was very overdue, that he believed she was down at sea, and that he was steaming to the northwest; based upon Earhart’s description of cloudiness and overcast, northwest, where bad weather predominated, was the likeliest direction. It was bright and sunny at Howland.

U.S.S. Lexington recovering and launching aircraft in 1937, possibly during the Earhart search

The Itasca had a reasonable idea where Earhart might be.  Howland Island lay directly along the Line Of Position 157-337 that Earhart had provided, but Thompson couldn’t be sure how far north along the line Earhart had flown.

U.S.S. Colorado in 1937. Its three floatplanes (near the stern) assisted in the Earhart search

There were a number of anomalies working against the Itasca and against Earhart that morning. The first was that Earhart had announced at 20:15 GMT that she was “running north and south” along the LOP (emphasis added) as opposed to “running north to south” which would have made more sense --- at least it would have put her in a single set direction. In effect, “running north and south” meant that she was doubling back and forth along her track, covering and re-covering an area she had already overflown. It made little sense, but burned precious fuel to no benefit. She had likewise advised at 19:28 GMT that she was “circling,” though to what end she never explained. And she had radioed at 19:12 GMT that she was at the low altitude of 1000 feet. Unless she was underflying cloud cover (something she did not say) this too makes little sense. More can be seen from a higher altitude than a lower altitude. At 10,000 to 12,000 feet she might have been able to see Howland Island against the ocean’s surface or perhaps the Itasca making smoke. Lower down her field of view would have been more immediately restricted.

The HMS Gorleston, nee USCGC Itasca became a Lend-Lease vessel during World War II

Based on her radio signal strength she was reasonably close by the Itasca  (within 50 miles at most) when she disappeared but she did not give either an estimated position or a weather report --- was she in clear air or in among clouds? Could lookouts aboard the ship have seen her or not? 

Amelia Earhart’s planned flight path. It took her over the Japanese Mandated Gilbert Islands and near the British-held Phoenix Islands. The Line Of Position (LOP) worked out by Fred Noonan is shown, as is the International Date Line (heavy vertical line) and the Equator (heavy horizontal line). According to Amelia’s last message she was flying “north and south” along the LOP when she vanished. Various theories have her landing on any one of several Pacific islands. During World War II one of the greatest amphibious battles in history was fought at Tarawa

Her decidedly amateurish handling of the radio and of the substance of her transmissions (only one position report in a 2,563 mile long flight, staccato descriptions of actions taken, and a lack of detail) compounded a problem into a disaster for her. Earhart’s behavior in that critical last hour has more than a whiff of desperation about it.   

 

The decidedly complex Bendix RA-1

On the flip side, it is important to remember that after signing off from Lae at 8:00 GMT Amelia heard nothing else come over her radio until 19:30 GMT, eleven-and-a-half hours later, when she made a brief, frustrating contact with Itasca. Having heard nothing in all that time it would be reasonable for her to assume that no one could hear her either. 

Vacuum tubes. Big, clunky, and low-tech, but efficient and effective, and still, in some ways, the darlings of purists. Their greatest drawback was their similarity to incandescent light bulbs. Rough handling or shaking could knock their filaments loose and cause them to fail. They might last for decades, but would die without warning, often disabling complex equipment

Obviously, some critical component in her radio failed --- maybe something as pedestrian as a vacuum tube --- perhaps not completely, but intermittently, so that the radio generated only a weak carrier wave. That would explain her ability to momentarily hear Itasca in Hour 20 as she drew nearer the ship.  In fact, no one can know what she heard or what she broadcast that wasn’t heard.

*Among this blogger’s favorite offbeat Amelia Earhart disappearance theories is the one that she rescued the parachuting thief D.B. Cooper in midair and that they flew off together to live off his ill-gotten gains. This is second only to the idea that she and Elvis flew off to Paris together where they are living in sin in Jim Morrison’s apartment.